The election of Francois Hollande as French president, as well as being a big political story, is a big economic one; one propeller of the twin engine of the European Union and its single currency has been replaced, the other, German Chancellor, appears to be stuttering. After recent electoral setbacks, the chancellor looks politically vulnerable ahead of next year’s federal elections, and as more and more under pressure to ease-up on the rhetoric of austerity, as leaders and politicians around Europe take the cue from Hollande and start talking growth.
Hollande made Berlin his first stop, jetting off immediately after his inauguration on 15 May. In a much-commented episode, his aeroplane was struck by lightening on the flight from Paris, prompting many a journalist to hunt for a suitable metaphor, usually involving ancient Greek gods.Much was also made of the awkward choreography of the meeting, as every step and misstep was seen as something illustrative of a wider malady.
But, while both agree on the need to keep the fracturing Eurozone together, more and more speculation continues about Greece departing the single currency, with even the European Commission admitting that it has a contingency plan for just a scenario, Hollande has the popular sentiment behind him. The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) which houses the Merkel’s CDU party held a meeting of its Euro MPs in Ireland this week, and they too have been discussing growth.
This is something that Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny (whose ruling Fine Gael party is also a member of the EPP) is particularly keen to hear Europe play up. The next plenary session of the European Parliament, which takes place in Strasbourg, from 21-24 May, will also see MEPs debate the EU’s jobs and growth strategy in the presence of European Commission President, Jose Manuel Barroso.
At the end of May, Ireland faces a referendum on the fiscal pact, and although polls indicate a victory for the yes side, which is supported by the government, as well as some opposition parties, discontent is still vocal, and a large number of undecided may still play a decisive part in the eventual outcome. Europe will be unhappy if the treaty is rejected, however, growth, that magical panacea could make everything all better. Kenny has predicted that before the Irish electorate goes to the ballot boxes on 31 May, the EU will have cobbled together some sort of growth annexe to the treaty, especially following the extraordinary EU summit on 23 May to finalise this very issue once and for all. Then, he is confident, Ireland will repay Europe with a show of good faith of its own.
Of course, many of the Irish electorate resents Germany right now, or, to be more accurate, its perceived position of, along with France, the country’s bursar. Other, too, feel this, as protests against austerity measures ferment in various European capitals. But is the tide really turning? The UK’s prime minister, whose Conservative Party is getting increasingly restless over the question of Europe, and whose country is traditionally the strongest opponent of the single currency, has claimed that he and Hollande have a lot more in common that might be at first perceived. If this is indeed true, then stability, at least on a political leadership level, seems assured. But, as anyone following the scramble to represent the European union at the G8 will know, political leadership of the Union is never so harmonious. It may be time for someone to take the reigns. new europe on line
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