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Greece’s Election Supernova

Apr 26, 2012 4:45 AM EDT

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Aware of the dangers, Venizelos and Samaras have had no choice but to go into the remaining three weeks of campaigning employing the classic, polarizing rhetoric. But roughly half of Greek voters see through the charade and expect them to form a coalition, since they are the only powers supporting the country’s bailout loans and concomitant reform and austerity memoranda.

Unfortunately for Greece, such a coalition does not seem to hold the promise of salvation. If current poll numbers are indicative, close to half the legislature would be made up of extreme groups clamoring for an end to the loan agreement between Greece and its creditors—the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund. With over a year of recession still forecast by the EC, and almost two years according to the IMF, a moderate coalition of socialists and conservatives would face an uphill battle.

Unemployment is already at just under 22 percent, and at a staggering 54 percent among university graduates. A further $15 billion of austerity measures remain to be passed in June, so the fragile coalition can expect to be shaken barely a month out of the starting gate. An alliance of the left, currently being discussed, could all too imaginably team up with recently-disenfranchised unions to bring paralysis to Greece and, at best, shorten the government’s life or, at worst, bring it down in its first year.

Where does this fragmentation leave Greece? If conventional political physics prevail, enough stardust may get sucked back into the socialist and conservative camps to put them in power. They will then issue cabinet invitations to leaders of their breakaway factions in an attempt to consolidate. But it is difficult to see Samaras and Venizelos cooperating effectively, or holding such a ramshackle government together for long if it is to implement the difficult reform requirements Greece has committed to.

There is a strong possibility, though, that Greek politics will retain their centrifugal trajectory, rocketing more voters into deep space. In such a case it is highly likely that the European plan for Greece will fail, and so will the socialist and conservative suns. The coalition would then be a short-lived stellar phenomenon, followed by unimaginable darkness.

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