Scotland: taking the high road to independence?
AFP PHOTO / ANDY BUCHANAN
A few days after Edinburgh and London agreed on the terms of holding a referendum on Scottish independence, Alex Salmond’s Scottish National Party (SNP) gathered in Perth for its annual conference, and so beginning the long campaign.
The vote will be held in 2014, and despite polls suggesting the majority in Scotland still favour preserving the United Kingdom, Scottish First Minister and SNP leader, Alex Salmond, is reportedly confident of turning things around. The SNP conference was held as regional elections in Spain saw pro-independence parties gain seats in the Basque country. The previous week, local elections in Belgium also saw gains for pro-separatist parties in the northern Flemish region.
The prospect of breakaway regions raises questions of EU policy. Spain has said it will actively block independence moves in places likethe Basque region and Catalonia, which holds regional elections in November. Spain is also one of the five European member states that does not recognise the independent status of Kosovo.
On this basis, Scotland may find itself in limbo when it comes to EU membership, granted upon unanimous approval of the other members. For Salmond, whose party is pro-EU membership, and sees an independent Scotland as part of the Union, this is not a problem. The SNP leader insists that, contrary to some claims, the country would not have to re-apply to join the EU, nor be forced to join the single currency. According to reports in the UK’s Independent newspaper, Salmond is facing pressure to reveal whether or not he received problematic legal advice on the issue. Scotland’s information commissioner has asked the first minister to release any information he has in connection with talks on EU membership. Salmond has gone to court to protect any such information from being released. His stance has provoked strong reactions for pro-union Labour figures. Referring to a poll that suggest the majority of people in Scotland disagree with Salmond’s position, the Labour MEP Catherine Stihler said “Once again, the SNP have displayed just how out of touch they are with the people of Scotland. This poll tells them, loud and clear, that the people of Scotland do not agree with them. They should listen to the voice of the people and release the advice that they have”.
But Europe is just one issue that will touch the campaign, not least during European Parliament elections in June 2014. On 19 October, the first evening of the conference, the party decided by a narrow vote to reverse its decades-long policy and agree that it would be in favour of joining NATO, on condition that the UK withdraws its trident nuclear missiles, currently housed in Scotland, from the country. Lots of people claim this brings jobs to the Clyde river; an issue Salmond will have to fight out over the next two years. There are also claims that removal of the trident nuclear submarines from Scotland would cost up to £25 billion (€30bn).
This is not insignificant, as jobs and the economy, is, apparently, what the SNP are banking on to win over those floating middle-class voters. Scottish autonomy has long-since being lampooned as the preserve of detached, aspirational suburban voters. Moreover, the party is also banking on the fact that the current coalition government, declining in popularity, will be toxic in two years time. Cuts to welfare programmes and public services, imposed in London, but not affecting Scotland, will be used as justification that those north of the border will be better off, and more secure in an independent nation. Delegates at the SNP conference were also reminded that Scotland is responsible for 9.7% of the UK’s total tax receipts, and receives on 9.3% of the spending. The country also has oil and gas reserves.
Despite polls suggesting the majority of voters, who, for the first time include 16 and 17 year-olds, a concession won by the SNP in negotiations with London, do not want to split from the United Kingdom, the party is talking big; training so-called ambassadors – 10,000 of them – to spread the independence message, and trying to attract non-SNP supporters to the cause (the referendum campaign is, in theory, non-partisan, despite being dominated by the party).
At this juncture, it would appear that Salmond and the SNP have a fight on their hands; but, with the campaign, two years away, but seemingly already begun, it is perhaps unwise to write off their particular political aspirations. NEW EUROPE
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