Irish No under scrutiny /bbc
- 25 Jun 08, 08:11 AM
The fate of the Lisbon Treaty will, I suspect, be in the hands of the opinion pollsters.
Have we learnt any more since the dust settled on the European Council meeting? At the summit President Sarkozy frankly admitted to his fellow leaders that if a referendum had been held in France right now, it would have been lost. So he might have some sympathy for the man tasked with finding a way forward. As I understand it, no one was crude enough to directly suggest that the Irish prime minister call another referendum, but it was the assumption that hung in the air.
When the Czech prime minister stormed out of the room during the first session, effectively bringing it to an end, it concentrated minds. His protest was at a text that would have pushed countries to carry on with ratification but this together with the influence from other eastern countries, the Scandinavians and Britain, made it clear that those who wanted to push Ireland were not in the majority. If the Franco-German motor still drives the European Union it isn't spinning quite as furiously as some would like.
I know it will disappoint some readers, but no consideration was given to abandoning Lisbon or taking the No vote as a serious comment on the direction of the European Union. So they wait for Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen to report back in October. In that time there will be an effort to cajole, scare, but above all analyse the Irish people.
A telephone poll of 2,000 people, conducted days after the vote, had 55% only making up their minds in the week before the poll, 52% of No voters saying their main reason was not fully understanding the issues and 76% felt their No would help renegotiate a better deal for Ireland. This, on the surface, is quite good news for those who want another vote.
An Irish colleague of mine tells me Irish airwaves are filled with phone-ins full of people saying "what have we done?" in nervous voices. This is an attitude some EU stalwarts will wish to encourage, ahead of a possible second vote. Two very well respected commentators, Peter Ludlow and Wolfgang Munchau have published articles suggesting that Ireland will be isolated if the No vote stands. And the Centre for European Policy Studies has published an analysis suggesting how this could happen. 
Some think a bit more of this, and a few concessions on some of Mr Cowen's eight points will do the trick. I am not sure and I think the "don't push us around" vote might be stronger than some care to think. No analysis has been done by any august body on what a second No would do to the EU.
In the meantime, the French presidency will tread carefully: the plans for harmonising base rates of corporation tax have disappeared and the defence plans will be presented to stress their voluntary nature. The delicious debate on who would get what job has been shelved. This fascinating report explains what has been going on behind closed doors to set up an EU diplomatic service, as envisaged under the treaty: I wonder if they will still go on behind even tighter-shut doors?
The Irish No will dominate EU politics for a good while now, but I don't want to turn into a one-trick pony, so I am going to take it easy for a couple of days, and when I return I hope it will be with a different subject.
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