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Seven Questions: Will Turkey Join the EU... Or Go Nuclear?
Page 1 of 1
Posted December 2006
Turkey’s bid to join the European Union is on the verge of failure. If the EU says no, will Turks turn away from Europe? What does Turkey think about Iran and the bomb? Will Turkey seek its own nuclear weapon? To answer these questions, FP spoke with Mensur Akgun, an expert on Turkish foreign policy.
STR/AFP/Getty Images
Isolated: Turkish Cypriot troops march to celebrate the 23rd anniversary of the founding of the "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus"—a state recognized only by Turkey.
FOREIGN POLICY: Can you explain the European Union-Turkey debate about Cyprus?
Mensur Akgun: The Republic of Cyprus was established in 1960, with the agreement of Greece, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. In 1963, communal clashes and the separation of the Greek and Turkish communities began. For more than 10 years, there were clashes, even with U.N. peacekeeping forces on the island. Then in 1974, after a Greek attempt to topple the Greek Cypriot government, Turkey intervened. We still have a large amount of troops on the island.
What is at stake now is the protocol signed by Turkey due to insistence of the Greek Cypriots and the European Union on July 29, 2005. According to this protocol, Turkey would open its ports to Greek vessels. But due to domestic public opinion as well as pressure from the president of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, the government has had to weigh this issue with the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots, who believe that since Turkey will be opening up a market amounting to $4 billion a year to Greek vessels, they are entitled to demand the lifting of the isolation imposed on them in return.
The Greek side has resisted the idea, and the EU joined them in solidarity. At the beginning of December, the European Commission suggested that eight chapters of the protocol be suspended, and that the opening of the ports would be linked to the opening of these eight chapters. We’re not facing a shipwreck here, but merely the slowing down of negotiations with the EU.
FP: Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul says that his country remains committed to EU accession, despite the recent partial suspension of entry talks by EU foreign ministers. What about average Turks? Does the person on the street support accession?
MA: According to a recent poll in the Turkish Daily News, more than 50 percent of Turks still support the European idea. So, the Turks, like their government, are still behind the idea of EU membership. But I don’t know how long their support will last—at the moment it’s related to the position of some European governments who extended support to Turkey’s cause. The [new] pope has also helped. When he delivered his famous speech in Germany, most Turks were a bit disappointed, to put it mildly. But when he came here and openly declared his support for Turkish EU membership, it contributed to Turks’ understanding of EU-Turkey relations.
FP: Which is a greater threat to Turkish democracy: the military or the Islamists?
MA: I never voted for [the ruling Islamist] AKP, but I don’t see any imminent danger stemming from them. The military’s involvement in politics is more damaging to Turkish democracy than the potential intentions or the presumed intentions to move the country toward a more Islamic type of democracy. The military should definitely refrain from intervening in Turkish politics.
FP: How long will the Turkish government and people stand for continued delays in the EU membership process?
MA: Not long. Much will depend on the speed of negotiations in the other chapters and on the EU’s ability to find a solution to the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots. The Cyprus Republic’s accession agreement demands, in a rather hidden way, the lifting of isolation on the Turkish side and, according to the Rome Declarations of April 26, 2004, the council of ministers of the EU declared that they would lift the isolation. If they can deliver on those promises, there will be some progress, and the patience will continue.
FP: Prime Minister Erdogan recently visited Tehran, strengthening trade and diplomatic ties between Turkey and Iran. Does this mean Turkey supports Iran’s nuclear program?
BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP/Getty Images
Just trying to help: Turkey's prime minister is positioning himself as a mediator between Iran and the West.
MA: No, not at all. Turkey’s stance is the same as the 5+1 [Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States, and Germany] position, and Turkey would like to find a diplomatic solution. But Turkey wouldn’t want another intervention in Iran, which would cause further turmoil in the region. I think the closer Turkish-Iranian ties are appreciated by the American government as well—we can facilitate between the U.S. and Iran, as well as other countries in the region.
FP: Will Turkey go nuclear?
MA: If Turkey is left out of the EU, and if Turks feel threatened by Iran and other potential nuclear powers in the region, they are likely to opt for nuclear armament. This will, of course, jeopardize our relations with many other countries. Considering the U.S. attitude toward Israel and even to India, however, this might not be seen as a major problem by the decision makers in Turkey. But it’s not a question for today—maybe in 10 years’ time.
FP: There are a number of human rights issues the EU wants Turkey to address before being granted EU membership, including Kurdish and women’s rights, freedom of religion, and the use of torture. When you compare Turkey to pending EU member Romania, which has its own problems with human rights, do you consider these legitimate concerns?
MA: There is one difference between us and Romania: They are Christians and we are not. Of course we have Christians living in Turkey, [as well as] Jews and the other religious "minorities." But this is mostly a Muslim country, and the Europeans don’t like the idea of having a Muslim country in the European Union. Many parties in Europe are trying to hide behind the Greek Cypriots.
But the human rights demands are totally legitimate. We have to adjust our democracy and our human rights standards according to the demands of the Council of Europe. Turkey is a signatory to various international treaties, and we have to apply these treaties and adjust our legal system accordingly. Still, when I compare the Turkey of the late 1990s to today, there’s a great difference. The EU accession process gives us good leverage to change Turkey for the better.
Dr. Mensur Akgun directs the foreign policy program for TESEV, an independent Turkish think tank.
Seven Questions: Will Turkey Join the EU... Or Go Nuclear?
Page 1 of 1
Posted December 2006
Turkey’s bid to join the European Union is on the verge of failure. If the EU says no, will Turks turn away from Europe? What does Turkey think about Iran and the bomb? Will Turkey seek its own nuclear weapon? To answer these questions, FP spoke with Mensur Akgun, an expert on Turkish foreign policy.
STR/AFP/Getty Images
Isolated: Turkish Cypriot troops march to celebrate the 23rd anniversary of the founding of the "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus"—a state recognized only by Turkey.
FOREIGN POLICY: Can you explain the European Union-Turkey debate about Cyprus?
Mensur Akgun: The Republic of Cyprus was established in 1960, with the agreement of Greece, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. In 1963, communal clashes and the separation of the Greek and Turkish communities began. For more than 10 years, there were clashes, even with U.N. peacekeeping forces on the island. Then in 1974, after a Greek attempt to topple the Greek Cypriot government, Turkey intervened. We still have a large amount of troops on the island.
What is at stake now is the protocol signed by Turkey due to insistence of the Greek Cypriots and the European Union on July 29, 2005. According to this protocol, Turkey would open its ports to Greek vessels. But due to domestic public opinion as well as pressure from the president of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, the government has had to weigh this issue with the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots, who believe that since Turkey will be opening up a market amounting to $4 billion a year to Greek vessels, they are entitled to demand the lifting of the isolation imposed on them in return.
The Greek side has resisted the idea, and the EU joined them in solidarity. At the beginning of December, the European Commission suggested that eight chapters of the protocol be suspended, and that the opening of the ports would be linked to the opening of these eight chapters. We’re not facing a shipwreck here, but merely the slowing down of negotiations with the EU.
FP: Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul says that his country remains committed to EU accession, despite the recent partial suspension of entry talks by EU foreign ministers. What about average Turks? Does the person on the street support accession?
MA: According to a recent poll in the Turkish Daily News, more than 50 percent of Turks still support the European idea. So, the Turks, like their government, are still behind the idea of EU membership. But I don’t know how long their support will last—at the moment it’s related to the position of some European governments who extended support to Turkey’s cause. The [new] pope has also helped. When he delivered his famous speech in Germany, most Turks were a bit disappointed, to put it mildly. But when he came here and openly declared his support for Turkish EU membership, it contributed to Turks’ understanding of EU-Turkey relations.
FP: Which is a greater threat to Turkish democracy: the military or the Islamists?
MA: I never voted for [the ruling Islamist] AKP, but I don’t see any imminent danger stemming from them. The military’s involvement in politics is more damaging to Turkish democracy than the potential intentions or the presumed intentions to move the country toward a more Islamic type of democracy. The military should definitely refrain from intervening in Turkish politics.
FP: How long will the Turkish government and people stand for continued delays in the EU membership process?
MA: Not long. Much will depend on the speed of negotiations in the other chapters and on the EU’s ability to find a solution to the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots. The Cyprus Republic’s accession agreement demands, in a rather hidden way, the lifting of isolation on the Turkish side and, according to the Rome Declarations of April 26, 2004, the council of ministers of the EU declared that they would lift the isolation. If they can deliver on those promises, there will be some progress, and the patience will continue.
FP: Prime Minister Erdogan recently visited Tehran, strengthening trade and diplomatic ties between Turkey and Iran. Does this mean Turkey supports Iran’s nuclear program?
BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP/Getty Images
Just trying to help: Turkey's prime minister is positioning himself as a mediator between Iran and the West.
MA: No, not at all. Turkey’s stance is the same as the 5+1 [Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States, and Germany] position, and Turkey would like to find a diplomatic solution. But Turkey wouldn’t want another intervention in Iran, which would cause further turmoil in the region. I think the closer Turkish-Iranian ties are appreciated by the American government as well—we can facilitate between the U.S. and Iran, as well as other countries in the region.
FP: Will Turkey go nuclear?
MA: If Turkey is left out of the EU, and if Turks feel threatened by Iran and other potential nuclear powers in the region, they are likely to opt for nuclear armament. This will, of course, jeopardize our relations with many other countries. Considering the U.S. attitude toward Israel and even to India, however, this might not be seen as a major problem by the decision makers in Turkey. But it’s not a question for today—maybe in 10 years’ time.
FP: There are a number of human rights issues the EU wants Turkey to address before being granted EU membership, including Kurdish and women’s rights, freedom of religion, and the use of torture. When you compare Turkey to pending EU member Romania, which has its own problems with human rights, do you consider these legitimate concerns?
MA: There is one difference between us and Romania: They are Christians and we are not. Of course we have Christians living in Turkey, [as well as] Jews and the other religious "minorities." But this is mostly a Muslim country, and the Europeans don’t like the idea of having a Muslim country in the European Union. Many parties in Europe are trying to hide behind the Greek Cypriots.
But the human rights demands are totally legitimate. We have to adjust our democracy and our human rights standards according to the demands of the Council of Europe. Turkey is a signatory to various international treaties, and we have to apply these treaties and adjust our legal system accordingly. Still, when I compare the Turkey of the late 1990s to today, there’s a great difference. The EU accession process gives us good leverage to change Turkey for the better.
Dr. Mensur Akgun directs the foreign policy program for TESEV, an independent Turkish think tank.
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